Table C3
Comparison of probabilities fitted with four logistic regression models. The “boot” model was non-parametric bootstrap (resampling with replacement), used as a gold standard. First set of rows (cbpp): serological incidence probability of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in newly infected cattle herds from Ethiopian Highlands (survey data collected in early 2000s). Second set of rows (mosquitoes): hatch probability estimated for Aedes albopictus eggs (control group) collected during a semi-field experiment in La Reunion (2021). Pobs observed probability; Pfit fitted probability; LL lower 95% credible limit; UL upper 95% credible limit.
| Dataset | Model | P obs | P fit | LL | UL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cbpp | boot | 0.220 | 0.220 | 0.130 | 0.313 |
| quasi-likelihood | 0.220 | 0.222 | 0.153 | 0.306 | |
| beta-binomial | 0.220 | 0.214 | 0.146 | 0.300 | |
| glmer | 0.220 | 0.215 | 0.150 | 0.288 | |
| inla | 0.220 | 0.217 | 0.172 | 0.267 | |
| Mosquitoes | boot | 0.936 | 0.936 | 0.906 | 0.960 |
| quasi-likelihood | 0.936 | 0.919 | 0.750 | 0.986 | |
| beta-binomial | 0.936 | 0.875 | 0.743 | 0.952 | |
| glmer | 0.936 | 0.936 | 0.806 | 0.971 | |
| inla | 0.936 | 0.936 | 0.917 | 0.952 |
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